I read an article in the Vancouver Sun’s Housing section this weekend which made me laugh out loud and disgusted. A little background first.
On January 9, 2008 the CBC reported:
Canada’s economic growth will slow down this year, but will avoid a recession, top economists at Canada’s biggest banks agreed…The five economists don’t see a recession in the U.S. either, although some say it will be close…
Fast forward to October 6, 2008:
Canada is headed into a worse recession than anyone expected, one that could last until almost 2010, said the country’s top economists on Monday.
And finally this January 14, 2009 article:
Canada’s economy will get swamped by the global economic tsunami this year as the national GDP contracts in the first nine months, according to a new outlook released by the Conference Board of Canada Wednesday.
The Ottawa-based business think-tank said Canada’s gross domestic product will shrink for the first three quarters of 2009, a drop that will result in an overall economic contraction of 0.5 per cent for the entire year.
Which is why this article about the Vancouver housing market was so mind boggling.
BY KIM PEMBERTON VANCOUVER SUN
The Vancouver Sun
17 Jan 2009
As a first-time homebuyer Cynthia Barros is excited about owning her own place, although worried about getting the timing right. Barros and a friend plan to co-own a home, their way of possessing that first rung of the property ladder. And…read more…
So, when the reporting on the Vancouver market go from this March 17, 2008 article:
Anyone looking for a dip in the British Columbia real estate market before buying a home might reconsider their strategy.
A report by the Credit Union Central of British Columbia predicts housing prices will continue to rise by as much as 10 per cent this year and as much as seven per cent in 2009.
To this January 5, 2009 article:
A seven-year real estate bubble has burst in the Metro Vancouver housing market, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said Monday.
Prices have dropped almost 11 per cent between December 2007 and the end of 2008, and [David Watt of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver] said the perception is that prices are still falling, so it is hard to identify the bottom of the market.
you have to think that, maybe, things aren’t peachy-keen. So that’s why I’m more than a little skeptical when, in this article, Mr. Watt quoted:
Most first-time buyers today are hesitant and will end up waiting too long before getting into the market…he talked recently with a mortgage lender from one major charter bank in Vancouver who reports there’s a huge inventory of pre-qualified “ people who are just sitting on the fence.”
“ It takes more courage to go against the crowd and buy in a buyer’s market.”
Thanks Dave, but the average condo price in Vancouver is still too rich for my blood, and the blood of the majority of first-time buyers.
Cam Good of Mac Real Estate Marketing Solutions…believes the time is right now, particularly for first-time buyers because of the affordability.
“ It’s as good as it gets now in terms of affordability. It’s been a long time coming.”
“As good as it gets” implies that we are at the bottom of the market “dip“. Does anyone really believes this, Mr. Good of Mac Real Estate? (This is the same company BTW, that is selling off Onni properties in a “fire-sale”.)
Cameron Muir, the B. C. Real Estate Association’s chief economist [says] “ Affordability is much better today than it has been for two years.”
Muir says he doesn’t expect prices will make any further significant drops. And he anticipates, once buyer-confidence returns, a “ modest increase” in sales by the spring.
And I’m sure he has a lot of evidence to back this opinion up. I’m not buying it, in any way.
an authentic aesthetic 
As a buyer, the best advice anyone can get is to do your research. You should only buy when you feel comfortable buying. Whether the home is for you to live in or for investment.